High and rising commodity prices are sending the value of South African exports to the US surging.

In the first two months of this year, exports rose 32 percent from the same period last year to nearly $1.4 billion (R10 billion).

This follows a 27 percent rise to $7.5 billion in exports to the US last year. The figures, from the US department of commerce, appear on the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa.info) website. But only $309 million worth of local goods fell under Agoa, which covers about 7 000 product items - most of them energy-related products, apparel and transport equipment.

A sectoral breakdown of South Africa's exports for the first two months has not yet been published.

Figures from previous years show mineral and metal exports are by far the biggest component. At $5.3 billion, the sector's exports rose 83 percent in 2006 from the previous year. They represented 71 percent of last year's total.

Eckart Naumann, an independent economist and associate of the Trade Law Centre for Southern Africa, provided some detail for January and February this year. "Exports of ferroalloys were up 68 percent year on year to $59 million." Ferroalloys fall under Agoa.

"Diamond exports were up 80 percent to $199 million and unwrought and semi-manufactured platinum was up 34 percent to $532 million." No Agoa preferences are claimed for these categories.

Rising commodity prices, rather than volumes, were responsible for the higher values, according to Roger Baxter, an economist at the Chamber of Mines.

He said the average price of a production-weighted basket of platinum group metals - platinum, palladium and rhodium - rose from $768 an ounce in 2005 to $1 139 last year.

The price trajectory continued this year. Platinum prices ranged from about $1 160 to $1 240 an ounce in January and February, compared with less than $1 080 in the same two months last year. Rhodium was worth $5 600 to $6 000, compared with a price of less than $3 500. And palladium was $330 to $350, compared with less than $290.

The next biggest contributor to South Africa's exports to the US last year was transport equipment, which rose 50 percent last year to $579 million and represented 8 percent of the total. All exports in this category are under Agoa.

Nico Vermeulen, an executive at the National Association of Automobile Manufacturers of SA, said last year's rise was the result of an interruption in production at BMW "when they changed from the old to the new 3 series" in 2005.

The recovery continues this year. Naumann said: "In the first two months, passenger motor vehicles were up 126 percent to $101 million."

Agoa now applies to 38 sub-Saharan countries. The biggest beneficiaries by value are Nigeria and Angola.

"But their US-bound trade is largely concentrated in oil exports," said Naumann. "Not so for South Africa, which has the most diversified exports under Agoa of all the beneficiary countries."

In the first two months, Nigeria exported $4.1 billion worth of goods to the US, of which $3.8 billion were under Agoa. The value was 10 percent lower than for the same period last year, partly due to lower oil prices, said Tony Twine, an economist at Econometrix.

"The year began with light crude oil prices at about $63 a barrel," he said. "By January they had fallen to $50 and between then and the end of February they had risen to $60. This was about 10 percent lower than in the same period the previous year."

He attributed the lower volumes exported from Nigeria to recurring interruptions in supply.

In contrast, Angolan exports to the US in the first two months were 31 percent higher at $1.7 billion, almost all of them under Agoa. "Angola has more than doubled its output recently from 900 000 barrels a day to 1.9 million," said Twine.

By Ethel Hazelhurst

Latest AGOA Trade Data currently available on AGOA.info


Click here to view a sector profile of South Africa’s bilateral trade with the United States, disaggregated by total exports and imports, AGOA exports and GSP exports.

Other regularly updated trade statistics on AGOA.info include: (click each link to view)